The Ten Minutes That Decided A Deal

When I meet a founder for the first time, I usually have about 30 minutes. And sometimes that’s all it takes to just know that you want to back this business

In 2021 I backed a company called Jude, and I knew within the first ten minutes of the call that I wanted to back the founder. Jude tackles bladder health, something one in three women deal with in their lifetime, and its founder, Peony Li, is one of those people you understand quickly.

The company was pre-revenue and pre-product at the time, and since that early cheque it's gone up more than 5x in valuation. Some readers will know it from Dragon's Den.

So what was I reading for in those ten minutes, with no product and no revenue to look at?

Three things.

The first is how clearly a founder explains why they're the one to build this, and why now.

With Peony, it was immediate. The way she talked about how she'd arrived at this problem, what she'd lived through to get there, and why it had to be solved this way, all of it made the case for her before she'd finished explaining the business. The strongest founders can tell you how big the problem is, who feels it most, why those people would pay to solve it, and why they in particular are the person to solve it, all without reaching for notes. When someone has that clarity, it usually means they understand the problem deeply enough to have designed the right thing for it.

The second is self-awareness.

I pay close attention to how a founder talks about their own strengths and, more tellingly, their weaknesses. Building a company is never linear. There will be feedback, setbacks, and constant change, and the founder's job is to absorb all of it and keep shaping a better product. A founder who can already name what they're good at and where they'll need help is showing me they can handle that. 

The third is the extra evidence a founder brings that they didn't strictly need to.

Strong customer references early tell me who I'd call in diligence, and sometimes the founder mentions that a customer has since joined the cap table as an angel, because they believe in the product that much. That's a powerful signal. Someone who uses the product has put their own money behind it.

One example I've seen of this is Capably AI, a company in the Arāya portfolio.

When we referenced their customers, we found some were hiring people internally just to roll Capably out across their organisations. Think about what that means. If a customer is spending on staff to implement your product, you're not the first thing they cut when budgets tighten, and you're not easily swapped for a shinier tool three months later. That kind of commitment from a customer is one of the strongest signs of real demand there is. 

You can't run full diligence in 30 minutes, and you're not meant to.

What you can do is read for the things that tell you whether diligence is worth starting: how clearly the founder explains why them and why now, whether they understand their own gaps, and what evidence they bring that other people are already betting on them.

If those three are there, that's usually enough to take it to the next stage. If you can’t get clear on why them and why now in half an hour, its worth considering whether its worth continuing to due diligence. 

Investing often happens behind closed doors. Over the last nine months, I’ve been breaking down what happens inside those rooms through this weekly newsletter, and more recently, on my YouTube channel.

Now, I want to take you further inside the process.

This autumn, I’m bringing The Arāya Table to life: a new video series where I’ll sit down with a panel of investors to evaluate three real pitch decks.

We’ll unpack what catches their attention, what raises questions, what makes them lean in, and ultimately, what makes an investor say yes or no.

The conversations will be filmed and shared on my YouTube channel, with one simple aim: to demystify the investment process and give a clearer view of how investors actually assess companies.

Know a founder who would like their deck considered for the series?

Please do share this link with them, or send them my way.

Warmly,
Rupa

P.s. When you're ready, here are 3 ways to connect further: